Opinion: Midterm Election Review

The midterms are over so everyone can now take a step back and remember that we are all American and at the end of the day we are all part of the same party. Just kidding, who would ever want to do that. The elections are now over, for the next two months when Georgia decides to go for round two and then again until this time next year and then again the year after that, so it is time to assess what can be learned and how the midterm elections went. This was a year full of surprises and while many had high expectations heading into this year’s election, it ended up being much more normal than most people would have imagined; Republicans were not able to take back control of the Senate yet, but took back control of the House and just because Democrats were able to flip one Senate seat but it certainly wasn’t all sunshines and rainbows. It’s time to look back at the good, the bad, and the ugly storylines coming out of the 2022 Midterm Elections. 

For some context, it is important to remember that going in to this election, Republicans were at a severe disadvantage due to some untimely retirements; Pat Toomey retiring as Pennsylvania allowed for John Fetterman to stumble into office and Rob Portman retiring as senator of Ohio caused Republicans to spend far more than they would have, both of which leaving at relatively younger ages. This paired with the possibility of Republican governors running for Senate such as New Hampshire Chris Sununu and Vermont Phil Scott, who are overwhelmingly popular Republican governors in Democrat held Senate states and both won comfortably in gubernatorial elections would have made the elections much more favorable for Republicans. Even assuming Vermont and New Hampshire did not flip, the odds of a Republican incumbent losing in Pennsylvania is highly unlikely; for those wondering, the last time a Republican Senator lost as an incumbent in the state of Pennsylvania was in 1956 when James Duff was defeated by Joseph Clark. If Pat Toomey then, hadn’t retired, Republicans would have only had to take back any one of the other states including Nevada, Arizona, or Georgia with extra money to pour in since they wouldn’t be used on elections like Ohio or Pennsylvania. People are reading too much into the headlines and results without looking at the context, voters attitudes might not necessarily be changing, just the familiar, popular candidates leaving allowed for Democrats to make up ground in important states. 

With that being said, Republicans did in fact lose the Senate, and all that it took was hundreds of millions of dollars from billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried and the immediate collapse of a $30 billion crypto company in FTX. 

To start, the two most prominent gubernatorial elections were in Texas and Georgia, which featured two household names in Beto O’Rourke and Stacy Abrams as 

both of them continued their quest for relevance and both failed. O’Rourke’s defeat in Texas was somewhat expected but another loss for O’Rourke brings up the important question; why does anyone still ca

re about Beto O’Rourke? It is obvious that he is not a viable candidate on a national level as his appearance in the 2020 presidential election was so brief one would not be amiss to have even forgotten

he ran altogether. At one point Beto O’Rourke was seen as the “next big thing” for the Democrat Party as he gave Senator Ted Cruz a run for his money. Unfortunately for O’Rourke, it seems as though he has only regressed from there as Texas governor Greg Abbott won comfortably. O’Rourke has now lost an election for senator, president, and governor all over the span of four years, leaving many to believe the ceiling for O’Rourke will only ever be as representative for the El Paso area.

The same can be said for Stacey Abrams in Georgia, except for Abrams, Democratshave been quite successful in Georgia in recent years. The loss for Abrams is quite baffling as the other Senate elections dating back to the runoffs have lasted for days and Georgia is easily the most competitive state in the country. This isn’t the first time that Abrams has found herself conceding an election (even though she did it quite a bit faster this time) but at least in 2018 the deficit was at 54,723 votes to the 299,588 she lost by this year while at the same time Democrats in the state of Georgia have won two Senate races, pushed a third to a runoff, and won a presidential election. It’s clear that Abrams is destined for greater things than the state of Georgia; even though she has never held an office higher than at the state representation level, the national media and Democrats around the country seem to see a lot more in her than Georgia voters did.

For years there has been talk of Florida changing and becoming a purple state. To those who believed this would happen, I wouldn’t hold my breath as Ron DeSantis has firmly established himself as the next in line to lead the Republican Party after the end of the Donald Trump era. Democrats probably underperformed in Florida more than anywhere else in the country during the midterms not only losing the gubernatorial election, losing the senate race, losing 20-8 in the House of Representatives, and losing the election for attorney general.

What makes DeSantis’ win in Florida all the more impressive is that he has been atodds with former President Trump quite a bit but was still able to muster overwhelming support among Floridians. DeSantis’ win wasn’t the only significant win in the state as Marco Rubio also had an easier than expected night. This loss for Democrats is not one they will likely recover from anytime soon. According to the Washington Post, the Democrat’s loss in Florida could be so debilitating that it could take up to ten years to recover from.

The biggest flip of the midterm elections was in Pennsylvania where Democrat John Fetterman beat Republican Mehmet Oz to flip the seat and what could have ultimately given Democrats control over the Senate. Since the 2020 presidential election, Pennsylvania has been increasingly turning blue and this midterm election is another step in that direction. Heading into the midterms, Democrats held control over the Senate with a 50-50 split since the president is also Democrat. At best, Democrats were hoping to keep the Senate at a 50-50 and the win in Pennsylvania definitely helped to preserve that.

The closest race of the year ended up being in Nevada where Democrat incumbent Catherine Masto-Cortez was able to come back against Republican Adam Laxalt to hold onto her seat in the Senate. This win gives Democrats control of the Senate regardless of how the Georgia runoff comes out

Our very own state of Virginia was also a state of interest in terms of the House of Representatives. Republicans underperformed what they were hopingto accomplish as only one incumbent lost leaving Virginia with 5 Republicans and 6 Democrats as the Representatives. This is still a change from where Virginia used to be even less than a decadent  ago where it was an entirely blue state.

This election leaves the Republican Party with the question; is Donald Trump the right person for the party? Many see Trump as the reason for Republicans underperformance and whether or not this is true Donald Trump has been a polarizing figure inside the Party itself that has turned some voters away. While Biden is the clear choice for Democrats in 2024, the Republican candidate might be more up in the air than it appeared months ago. The aforementioned Ron DeSantis has proven himself as wildly popular among Floridians so would it be possible to translate that onto a national scale?

In a certain sense, the midterms have left Americans with more questions than it answered. Democrats are now in a better position than they were in but the pressure is now on more than ever for Biden to have a strong second half of his presidency now that the House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans and the Senate remains up in the air. It will be interesting to see how Republicans will be able to use this control and if they will be able to go on the offensive against Biden in a way they weren’t able to before. The midterms aren’t even over yet as the all important runoff election in Georgia isn’t until January so both sides will have a chance to regroup and refocus their efforts for round two. The countdown to election day in 2024 has now begun even before the candidates themselves have been decided.