95th Oscars: Picks vs Predictions

The Oscars recently released their nominations, with the event itself just around the corner on March 12th. Often times, the Oscars get criticized for giving awards to movies that people consider to be undeserving. In response to this, I will be doing two things for each major category: giving my pick (or who I think deserves to win) and my prediction (or who I think the Academy is likely going to give the award to).

Who are some of the Major players?

In order to give context as to what movies I am referring to, here is a short description of some of the most nominated movies:

Everything Everywhere All at Once: A wildly original and wacky exploration into the multiverse and family. Published by the surging A24 and directed by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Sheinert, it stars Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

The Banshees of Inisherin: A quiet exploration of a falling out between two longtime friends living on a small island off the coast of Ireland during the Irish Civil War of the 1920s. Directed by Martin McDonagh, it stars Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon, and Barry Keoghan.

Top Gun: A well crafted and triumphant revisitation of the story of the original Top Gun(1986). Directed by Joseph Kosinski, it stars Tom Cruise, Miles Teller, Jennifer Connely, and Glen Powell.

TÁR: A character study of a well known conductor who enters a tailspin after a series of allegations are levied against her. Directed by Todd Field in his return to direction after seventeen years, it stars Cate Blanchett, and Nina Hoss.

The Fabelmans: A semi-autobiographical hopeful depiction of the youth of Stephen Spielberg, showcasing the origin of his filmmaking and the turmoil of his family life. Directed by Spielberg himself, it stars Gabriel LaBelle, Michelle Williams, Paul Dano, and Seth Rogen.

Picks vs. Predictions:

Best Picture

My Pick – Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Prediction – The Banshees of Inisherin

This year’s best picture race is an extremely interesting one. There has been much discussion about Elvis making the list, especially when other critically acclaimed movies were omitted, like Aftersun, Decision to Leave, or The Batman. I would be absolutely floored if Elvis managed to win. In my mind, this year’s race comes down to five real contenders: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, and TÁR. Out of these choices, I think that Everything Everywhere All at Once is just a little bit ahead of the pack. Its wildly original script and absurd imagination is something that doesn’t come around all that often. As for which movie I think will actually win the award, The Banshees of Inisherin has all of the hallmarks of an Academy favorite movie. It has a more down-to-earth tone combined with great performances across the board that make it a favorite for the award in my eyes.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

My Pick – Paul Mescal, Aftersun

My Prediction – Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Actor is a race that has one heavy favorite in The Whale’s Brendan Fraser, but I think that this award is a bit closer than it has been marketed. Although I am certainly not a fan of Elvis, Austin Butler was definitely one of the few things holding that movie together. Colin Farrell has been receiving unanimous praise for his role in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Paul Mescal gave an outstanding performance in my favorite movie of the year, Aftersun. This is a very tough category, but of those choices I would pick Paul Mescal as the best performance. As for who will actually win, it’s important to remember that The Academy Awards are decided in large part due to narratives surrounding the awards. Keeping that in mind, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Fraser will take this one home. His Hollywood comeback has been met with universal acclaim, and his feel good story is likely too much to overcome for the other candidates.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

My Pick – Cate Blanchett, TÁR 

My Prediction – Cate Blanchett, TÁR,

Compared to most of the other categories, I don’t think that this race is particularly close, but it is interesting. There has been lots of debate about the nomination of Andrea Riseborough for her role in To Leslie. After months and months of To Leslie receiving almost no buzz, just a few weeks before the voting for the Oscars began, several celebrities all began posting about the movie at the same time in a bizarre campaign the likes of which has never really been seen before. This controversy led to The Academy conducting an official review of the validity of her nomination, though it was upheld. As for the race itself, Riseborough doesn’t stand much of a chance. Michelle Williams and Michelle Yeoh were both fantastic in their roles this year, and Ana de Armas’ Blonde will certainly pose a threat due to the Academy’s infatuation with biopics. The real juggernaut in this category though, is Cate Blanchett in TÁR. Since the movie is a detailed character study, the camera rarely leaves Blanchett’s side. She bears the whole weight of the movie on the strength of her acting, often for multiple minute long takes at a time. Not only was it a great performance, but it was the type of performance the voting committee loves. These factors lead me to both pick and predict Blanchett to win.

Best Director 

My Pick – Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

My Prediction – Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

There is not much of a question as to whose hands this award is going to end up in. As mentioned before, these awards are largely narrative based, and I find it hard to believe that Spielberg will not receive a legacy win for what could very well be his last movie, The Fabelmans. Not to say that his work on that movie isn’t Oscar worthy because it definitely is, but he is certainly going to receive a boost in the race due to his legacy. So he is definitely my prediction to win. As to who is most deserving, of the nominees, I would have to go with Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. It had a striking direction, what particularly stood out was the use of nature. TÁR and Everything Everywhere All at Once are other strong contenders, but I don’t see them realistically threatening the top two, particularly Spielberg’s.

Best Supporting Actress 

My Pick – Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once 

My Prediction – Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

This should be one of the closer races of the night, with every nominee having a real shot at taking it home. The first thing that many people noticed was that Everything Everywhere All at Once sported two nominees, with both Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis being put up for the award. I think that this fact hinders Curtis’ odds, as it is pretty widely agreed upon that she doesn’t even have the best performance in her own movie. It also reduces Stephanie Hsu’s chances, because voters in the academy who are fans of the movie will likely have their vote split between the two actresses. Angela Bassett’s nomination is also very noteworthy due to the fact that her performance is in a Marvel movie, a series that the Oscars has notoriously omitted from nearly all their awards, save for visual effects. Bassett definitely deserves her spot on this list, with her dominant performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever being one of the highlights of the movie for me. Kerry Condon also was one of the highlights of The Banshees of Inisherin, portraying one of the few women in that movie. This race is really close, so it is a difficult choice, but I would probably go with Stephanie Hsu. I think she did a great job in her role, especially since she is essentially playing two characters in one head. As for who will win the award, I think the split vote is too much for either of the Everything Everywhere All at Once nominees to overcome, and The Academy probably won’t give a major Oscar win to a Marvel movie, so I imagine that Kerry Condon goes home with this one.

Best Supporting Actor 

My Pick – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Prediction – Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I have a hard time believing that anyone except Ke Huy Quan will win this award. With the way that the Oscars love narratives, the comeback story of Ke Huy Quan in Hollywood (similar to Brendan Fraser in Best Actor this year) is probably going to get Quan this award. He is both my pick and my prediction for this category, but the other nominees are notable as well. Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin is likely going to receive some buzz, but will struggle with a split vote as well, as Barry Keoghan is also nominated from The Banshees of Inisherin. Brian Tyree Henry received his first nomination for a little discussed movie called Causeway, and lastly there is a puzzling nomination for Judd Hirsch, who plays a very small role in The Fabelmans, not one that I would say is particularly “Oscar Worthy.” Anybody winning except Ke Huy Quan would be a shock to me.

Best Original Score 

My Pick – Justin Hurwitz, Babylon 

My Prediction – Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

This is probably the least close race of the night, but I think it’s worth discussing. The far and away front runner is Justin Hurwitz’s superb work on Babylon. A longtime collaborator with director Damien Chazelle, he is known for his work on the music of acclaimed movies La La Land and Whiplash. His contributions of jazz to Babylon were some of the best parts of the movie. Most scores in movies try to be invisible, but Babylon’s score does the exact opposite, making itself seen and heard throughout the entirety of the movie’s three hour runtime. I would be absolutely floored if anyone else won, not that the score of the other nominees aren’t good, but Babylon is more than a cut above the competition.

At the end of the day, these are just my opinions. The Oscars exist to celebrate movies, and art is subjective. No matter who the award goes to each year, it’s impossible to please everyone with the selections. What is important is that people’s work is recognized on a huge stage, and even with the many qualms people (including myself) have with their selection process, I think that there is still value to be had in an awards show like the Oscars.